AGP Executive Report

Ethiopia–Eritrea Rift & Horn Tensions: Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara, expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats, and Eritrea retaliated by severing ties—amid renewed fighting in Tigray that has raised fears of a wider regional spillover. Tigray Frontline Update: Federal forces recaptured Mekelle’s Alula Aba Nega airport as rebels reportedly withdrew, while residents warned of looting risks and banks/shops shut. Sudan Diplomacy: US envoy Massad Boulos met UN envoy Pekka Haavisto on efforts to end Sudan’s war, including a proposed 90-day humanitarian ceasefire to unlock political talks. Sudan Humanitarian Pressure: Fuel shortages in Sudan are driving price spikes and disrupting transport, with shortages linked to both global disruptions and domestic import constraints. EU Sanctions on Sudan Gold: The EU’s July shift targets Sudan’s war economy by banning Sudanese gold imports and restricting mercury/cyanide exports—sparking debate over whether sanctions can work without cutting profitable regional networks. UK Visa “Brakes” Hit Sudanese Students: Britain introduced visa brakes for student applicants from Sudan (and others), drawing criticism over access to education for people fleeing conflict. Red Sea Risk Link: Analysts warn the Ethiopia–Eritrea rupture could further destabilize Red Sea security and shipping routes, with knock-on effects for Sudan’s already strained region.

Sudan Peace Diplomacy: US adviser Massad Boulos met UN envoy Pekka Haavisto to push peace efforts and a proposed 90-day ceasefire, aiming to unlock humanitarian access and restart political talks as both sides keep seeking military gains. Sudan Humanitarian Pressure: UN-linked reporting highlights worsening conditions for displaced people, including funding cuts that could leave millions without aid, while Sudan’s war continues to strain regional borders. Sudan Accountability & Rights: Human Rights Watch urged world leaders at the UN to defend international justice mechanisms, warning that weakening accountability tools could block victims in conflicts including Sudan. Ethiopia Spillover Risk: Fighting in northern Ethiopia is intensifying toward Mekelle, while Ethiopia’s diplomatic rupture with Eritrea (and tit-for-tat expulsions involving Egypt) raises fears the renewed Tigray conflict could widen across the Horn—potentially converging with Sudan’s own war dynamics. UN Horn-of-Africa Warning: UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for restraint amid “growing tensions,” urging dialogue as diplomatic ties collapse and offensives continue. Regional Diplomacy Watch: Egypt’s FM met Boulos on Arab and African affairs, underscoring Cairo’s role in regional diplomacy as Sudan-related security concerns remain in focus.

Sudan Humanitarian Pressure: Libya’s Kufra is absorbing a growing share of Sudan’s displaced, but border closures and security risks are making crossings more dangerous while local hospitals and a new refugee medical center face staff shortages and mounting care demands. Diplomatic Fallout Around Sudan: Washington’s push for an unconditional SAF ceasefire is being criticized as backfiring, with analysts warning it leaves no workable exit for either side and makes a ceasefire harder to reach. Sudan Politics and Accountability: Sudan’s government has rejected a US ceasefire proposal, warning against a Libya-style partition, as rights groups urge international scrutiny over alleged chemical weapons use. Regional Security Spillover: Renewed fighting in Ethiopia’s north is driving wider Horn tensions, with Ethiopia and Eritrea severing ties and Addis Ababa accusing Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing an opposition alliance—sparking fears the conflict could spread. Health and Detention: Ousted President Omar al-Bashir has been moved to a military-run hospital in Khartoum for treatment, with his lawyer saying he needs further care abroad.

Sudan Ceasefire Clash: A Sudanese army adviser rejected a US-backed 90-day ceasefire, warning it could amount to a Libya-style partition and preserve the RSF’s political role, while the US plan also hinges on an internationally monitored RSF pullback from cities. Bashir Health Update: Ousted president Omar al-Bashir has been moved to a military-run hospital in Khartoum for treatment, but his lawyer says he still needs care abroad; Sudan’s military has given only preliminary approval for travel. Humanitarian Strain: In Darfur and North Kordofan, malnutrition and soaring food prices are worsening as fuel shortages disrupt farming and transport, with reported child deaths linked to lack of healthcare. Ethiopia-Eritrea Break: Ethiopia ordered the closure of its embassy in Eritrea and expelled 10 diplomats after explosions in Addis Ababa, as both sides accuse each other of backing TPLF-linked opposition—raising fears the Horn’s conflict could spill across borders. Red Sea Food Risk: A UN official warned that shipping disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz could deepen food insecurity, citing Sudan among countries heavily dependent on Gulf fertilizer imports.

Ousted President Omar al-Bashir: Sudan’s military-run authorities transferred Bashir to a Khartoum hospital for treatment, while his lawyer says he needs care outside the country; a separate report says preliminary approval to travel abroad was granted, but his family disputes any official notification, leaving his medical exit in limbo. US ceasefire dispute: A US-backed 90-day ceasefire plan is drawing sharp pushback from Sudan’s army adviser, who warns it could amount to a Libya-style partition and preserve the RSF’s role. Sudan dialogue: Sudan’s long-delayed political talks move from setup to broader consultations with parties and blocs, with the next phase now focused on persuading deeply divided forces to sit at one table. Crime and networks: Kenya’s DCI arrested 13 suspects tied to an international fake gold and counterfeit US dollar syndicate, including police officers, after a raid at Nairobi’s airport. Food security risk: A UN official warned that disruptions to fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could worsen global hunger, citing Sudan among Gulf-dependent importers. Regional spillover: Renewed fighting in Ethiopia’s north and claims of cross-border support are raising fears of wider Horn instability, with explosions reported in Addis Ababa.

Sudan Conflict Diplomacy: A Reuters report says a US ceasefire proposal for Sudan could push the country toward a Libya-style partition, with an adviser to Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan warning the plan would ignore Sudan’s conditions, including an internationally monitored RSF withdrawal from cities. Humanitarian Pressure: UNHCR warns severe funding cuts are endangering protection and aid for 8.3 million refugees and other displaced people, forcing programme scaling back. Regional Security & Red Sea: Egypt urged de-escalation over Iran-related tensions and stressed freedom of navigation through the Red Sea and Bab Al-Mandab, rejecting use of chokepoints as pressure. Sudan Politics & Accountability: Sudan’s foreign minister attacked external intervention at the UN, while rights advocates and UN-linked calls push for investigation into alleged chemical weapons use in Sudan. War’s Daily Impact: Young Sudanese displaced by fighting are turning to entrepreneurship to survive, and stories highlight cash support helping families rebuild amid ongoing insecurity.

Sudan War Diplomacy: A US ceasefire proposal for Sudan could push the country toward a Libya-style partition, a top adviser to Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan warned, saying Washington is ignoring Sudan’s conditions like an internationally monitored RSF withdrawal from cities. Humanitarian Fallout: UNHCR says severe funding cuts are threatening protection and aid for 8.3 million refugees and other forcibly displaced people, with the agency facing a $5.8bn gap. UAE-Linked Accusations: Sudan accused the UAE of worsening the war by backing the RSF, alleging attacks on infrastructure and a wider campaign against the SAF at the UN. Political Outreach: Sudan’s Somoud alliance, led by Abdalla Hamdok, hired a US firm for lobbying, media relations and government affairs as it seeks an end to the war and a political process. On-the-Ground Life: An IRC report describes how shelling near El Fasher forced Hawa and her family to flee again, underscoring the daily terror for civilians.

Sudan-UAE Accusations: Sudan told the UN it has “documentary evidence” the UAE is backing the RSF, worsening the war and humanitarian crisis, and rejected claims of neutrality. UN Chemical Weapons Probe: A Moroccan journalist screened a Sudan chemical weapons documentary in Washington, while rights advocates urged the UN and OPCW to investigate alleged chemical weapons use. Foreign Minister at UNGA: Sudan’s foreign minister called for stopping weapons and fighters flowing into Sudan and rejected “imposed solutions,” urging accountability for crimes in Darfur, Kordofan and Blue Nile. Humanitarian Funding Crunch: UNHCR warned nearly 8.3 million displaced people face losing vital protection as funding falls sharply, with Sudan among the hardest-hit displacement contexts. Ethiopia Regional Spillover: Ethiopia’s army chief accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of supporting rebels as fighting spreads beyond Tigray, raising fears the Horn could widen into a regional conflict. Water and Food Strain: Reports highlight Sudan’s deepening water crisis and drought pressures, with El Niño-linked heat risks compounding hardship. Press Freedom: Sudanese journalist Haitham Osman was detained in Ethiopia; the syndicate demanded his release and legal access. Red Sea Shipping Costs: War-risk insurance for Saudi-linked Red Sea tankers surged, underlining how corridor insecurity affects regional economies tied to Sudan.

UAE-RSF Accusations at UN: Sudan told the UN General Assembly the UAE is directly supporting the Rapid Support Forces, worsening the humanitarian catastrophe, and said the claims are backed by UN-linked investigations. Sudan Demands Foreign Support Stop: Sudan’s foreign minister urged an end to weapons and fighters flowing to the RSF and rejected “imposed solutions,” warning outside interference prolongs the war. UNHCR Funding Crisis: The UN refugee agency warned that severe funding cuts could leave nearly 8.3 million displaced people without vital protection and aid, with only 32% of needed 2026 funding received by late July. Ethiopia Conflict Spillover: Fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray is intensifying and spreading into Afar and Amhara, with fears it could widen into a wider regional conflict as accusations fly between Addis Ababa and neighbors. Food Security Pressure: FAO urged more funding for Sudan’s agriculture and emergency food production, warning El Niño risks worsening hunger and livelihoods across the Horn. Regional Trade Link: Tunisia will join a business forum in Libya’s Sabha to turn the transit hub into a logistics and trade gateway for Tunisian goods to markets including Sudan.

UN Humanitarian Funding: UNHCR warns nearly 8.3 million refugees and other forcibly displaced people could lose access to aid as “severe” funding cuts erode protection services, with only 32% of needed 2026 funds received so far. Sudan Conflict Accountability: Human rights advocates at a Geneva event called for an independent UN/OPCW investigation into allegations that Sudan’s army used chlorine-based chemical weapons in the war with the RSF. UN Diplomacy on Sudan: The UAE told the UN General Assembly it backs a humanitarian ceasefire and a political process for Sudan that excludes both warring parties and extremist groups, while also stressing de-escalation and sovereignty. Sudan Sovereignty Pushback: Sudan’s UN remarks rejected imposed solutions and external agendas, arguing peace must address root causes and reject weapon flows and mercenaries. Regional Tensions Spillover: Ethiopia’s army chief accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing TPLF-linked forces amid fighting spreading beyond Tigray; Sudan denied the claims. Human Rights in Sudan: A separate report says Sudan’s prisons have become major centers of torture, renewing calls for accountability.

Ethiopia–Sudan Tensions: Ethiopia’s army chief accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing Tigray rebels as fighting spreads beyond Tigray, with reports of rebel capture of strategic towns in Afar; Sudan Pushes Back: Sudan’s armed forces rejected the claims as baseless and counter-accused Ethiopia of supporting the RSF, including via drones; Humanitarian Strain in the Horn: Aid groups warned of rising civilian harm and displacement as renewed clashes threaten to widen the 2020–2022 conflict; Sudan’s War and Daily Life: Returnees and displaced people continue to find Khartoum unready, with power cuts and rubble shaping survival; Regional Security Tech: A report says DR Congo, Sudan and Mali are among Africa’s biggest drone importers, reflecting how unmanned systems are reshaping battlefield surveillance and strikes; UN and Diplomacy: UNGA81 coverage highlighted growing frustration with multilateral deadlock, with Sudan repeatedly cited in calls for accountability and conflict prevention.

Sudan–Ethiopia Tensions: Khartoum’s army rejected Ethiopia’s claim it backs Ethiopian opposition groups, saying the accusation is “baseless” and warning it will not tolerate threats to sovereignty, while Ethiopia’s military chief had alleged Sudan (and others) support armed groups against Abiy Ahmed. US Pressure on Sudan War: US envoy Massad Boulos said Washington is hardening its approach with sanctions and moves to expand an arms embargo, but urged a civilian track led through the AU-UN-Arab League “Quintet” and Sudanese-led dialogue. Refugee Crisis in Chad: UNHCR reported a surge of Sudanese fleeing to eastern Chad—over 400 people a day and a 20-fold jump—while only 18% of needed funding has arrived, raising fears of hunger and onward displacement. UN at a Crossroads: An editorial argues the UN’s growing irrelevance is visible in UNGA theatrics, urging it to refocus on stopping wars rather than spectacle. Khartoum Return Strain: AFP described people leaving again after returning to war-damaged Khartoum due to chronic power, water, jobs, and medicine shortages. Horn-of-Africa Arms Use: A report says Sudan is among Africa’s top drone importers, with drones increasingly used in conflicts across Sudan, DR Congo, and Mali. Blue Nile Child Labour: In Sudan’s Blue Nile, children are working in markets and industrial areas as displacement and economic collapse push families to rely on child labour. UNGA Diplomacy Focus: Egypt’s foreign minister held talks with Arab counterparts on Gaza, Sudan, the Horn, and Red Sea tensions, while stressing water security as a “red line.”

Khartoum’s returnee reality check: Millions who fled Sudan’s 2023 war are coming back, but AFP reports Khartoum remains short on power, water, jobs and medicine, pushing some families to leave again. Child labour in Blue Nile: In Damazin, conflict and economic collapse are driving children into long work hours, with activists warning of injury and exploitation as funding for child protection shrinks. Sudan war’s wider diplomatic pressure: A report says the US is holding al-Burhan’s UN visa over a truce plan, adding to tensions over who has legitimacy in Sudan’s conflict. Ethiopia spillover fears: Ethiopia’s army chief accuses Egypt and Sudan of backing an armed alliance aimed at removing Abiy Ahmed, as fighting spreads in Tigray, Amhara and Afar and the UN warns of a return to full-scale war. UNGA 81 backdrop: Tunisia urged an end to violence in Sudan and other regional conflicts, while UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher warned the world is edging toward “World War III.” AFCON 2027 qualifiers: Sudan notched a notable win in matchday one, alongside other surprises across the continent.

Khartoum’s Return Turns Sour: Millions have come back to Sudan’s capital after the army recaptured it, but chronic power cuts, water shortages, unemployment and lack of medicine are pushing many families to leave again, with some officials keeping relatives abroad. UN Pressure on Sudan War: The US is hardening its stance, including denying Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan a visa to attend UNGA, while pushing a civilian track and urging both SAF and RSF to accept a political path. Chemical Weapons Probe Demands: International experts and legal specialists are calling for an independent investigation into allegations of chemical weapons use in the Sudan war, warning against blame before proper site access and lab testing. Sudan-Saudi Maritime Deal Sparks Sovereignty Debate: As Sudan’s maritime boundary talks move forward, critics say the process lacks parliamentary input and constitutional mandate amid the ongoing war and political fragmentation. Regional Shockwaves: UNGA coverage also highlights how Sudan’s conflict remains part of a wider, volatile security picture across the Horn and Red Sea.

US pressure on Sudan war: US envoy Massad Boulos says Washington is hardening its stance, including blocking SAF chief Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan’s UN visa, while pushing a civilian track tied to the Berlin principles. Chemical weapons probe calls: International experts are urging an independent investigation into alleged chemical weapons use in Sudan, after claims linked to fighting near the al-Jaili oil refinery in 2024. Diplomacy in UNGA orbit: Russia’s Lavrov met Sudan’s Mohieddin Salem on UN sidelines, discussing conflict resolution and expanding trade and humanitarian ties. Humanitarian stakes: UN-linked reporting highlights worsening violence and food crisis pressures on Sudan’s civilians, as displacement and aid shortfalls continue. Regional diplomatic signals: Eritrea’s FM Osman Saleh held talks with Egypt and Sudan officials on UNGA margins, focusing on cooperation and regional security. Climate shock backdrop: A new study warns Super El Niño could drive major heat deaths, including projected thousands in Sudan, adding another layer to Sudan’s crisis.

Sudan-US Legitimacy Clash: Sudan’s foreign minister rejected a US stance that neither the army nor RSF represents legitimate constitutional governance, saying Khartoum will not accept externally imposed solutions and remains open to dialogue. Border Deal Spotlight: A new push to delimit Sudan’s maritime boundary with Saudi Arabia is framed as a sovereignty test amid the war and absent parliament. Humanitarian Pressure at UN: UNHCR chief Barham Salih urged the Security Council to back political solutions, warning Sudan’s conflict is driving displacement that can last “generations.” Education Under Fire: UN-linked reporting highlights how Sudan’s war is worsening access to schooling, with children facing extreme heat and shortages while donors call for more education funding. Regional Diplomacy: The Arab League met US officials on Sudan and Libya, stressing a humanitarian truce leading to a permanent ceasefire and preserving Sudan’s unity and institutions. Climate Threat for Sudan: A “super El Niño” forecast warns extreme heat could add about 17,600 deaths in Sudan by February, with Sahel countries among the hardest hit.