AGP Executive Report

Sudan War Displacement at Chad Border: At the Adre border post in Chad, rising numbers of Chadians fleeing Sudan’s war are arriving—but UN agencies warn funding shortages could force them to stop operations, leaving people in limbo. Belfast Violence Linked to Sudanese Suspect: In Northern Ireland, a Sudanese man, Hadi Alodid, charged over a Belfast stabbing that left a man seriously injured and sparked days of anti-immigrant unrest; migrants say they’re still afraid after homes and vehicles were targeted and “hit lists” circulated online. UK Political Fallout: British anti-Islam activist Tommy Robinson says he was detained at Heathrow and had his phone seized after posting about the Belfast riots, while local leaders push for a coordinated plan to tackle race-hate violence. Sudan Conflict’s Wider Impact: A separate report highlights how the Sudan war is driving regional displacement and humanitarian strain, with aid logistics and funding under pressure. Global Conflict Surge: A new study says state-based armed conflicts hit 65 in 2025, citing Sudan among major drivers of the spike.

Sudan Conflict & Diplomacy: A new push to pressure Sudan’s warring parties is gaining traction in Washington, with U.S. senators introducing a bipartisan bill aimed at external enablers and factions driving the civil war. Humanitarian Logistics: UN agencies warn that Middle East fighting is disrupting aid supply routes worldwide, with shipping delays and higher costs hitting medicines and emergency relief—at a time when Sudan’s crisis already strains response capacity. Regional Security Analysis: A Horn of Africa op-ed argues that the TPLF, Eritrea, and Somalia’s Al-Shabaab are increasingly converging in ways that could destabilize Ethiopia and reshape regional power balances. Sudan War on Civilians: Reports highlight how drone strikes are targeting vital infrastructure in Sudan, underscoring the growing risk to civilians. Forced Displacement: UNHCR says global forced displacement fell for the first time in a decade, but returns are often driven by worsening conditions—citing Sudan among major return destinations.

Sudan War & Economy: In Khartoum, observers warn that Sudan’s expanding “parallel” monetary institutions could split the banking system and destabilize markets as the war deepens; reports say new transitional currency notes are already circulating in parts of South Darfur despite central bank objections. Sudan Conflict & Defections: Human rights groups and analysts continue to scrutinize high-profile RSF defections into the Sudanese Armed Forces, including claims of amnesty and links to alleged war crimes during the El Fasher siege. Belfast Unrest After Sudanese Suspect: In Northern Ireland, anti-racism rallies drew thousands in Belfast after days of riots sparked by a knife attack in which a Sudanese man, Hadi Alodid, was charged with attempted murder; leaders condemned racist violence and intimidation, while counter-protests and clashes spread to other UK cities. Displacement Watch: UNHCR reports forced displacement fell for the first time in a decade, but returns and “refugee-like” situations remain high, with Sudan listed among major return destinations.

Sudan War & Rights: Human Rights Watch says Sudan’s RSF commanders who defected to the Sudanese military must be held accountable, as the group faces scrutiny over war crimes tied to the siege of El Fasher. Sudan Conflict Impact: A new Explosive Weapons Monitor report says civilian deaths from explosive weapons in 2025 fell 21% overall, but 56% of such deaths were attributed to Israel; it also flags Sudan among the hardest-hit places. Sudan Economy: Inflation projections for 2026 put Sudan among the world’s worst, driven by sharp currency depreciation and conflict damage to livelihoods. Belfast Spillover (Sudan-linked): Northern Ireland’s anti-immigration riots followed a knife attack in Belfast involving a Sudanese asylum seeker charged with attempted murder; authorities say mobs targeted minority residents, while politicians and police focus on misinformation, border rules, and the Common Travel Area. Regional Diplomacy: Egypt’s foreign minister discussed boosting ties with Switzerland and regional de-escalation, including the US-Iran negotiation track and steps on the Palestinian file.

Sudan Conflict Update: Drone strikes are increasingly hitting bridges, roads and other civilian infrastructure, tightening the grip of fighting and cutting off supply routes for millions, with reports describing a worsening pattern of destruction across the country. Civilian Harm in Focus: A new Explosive Weapons Monitor report says explosive weapons killed over 22,600 civilians in 65 countries in 2025, with Israel responsible for more than half of civilian explosive deaths and Sudan listed among the hardest-hit places. Peace Process Tensions (Horn of Africa): An Ethiopian official says efforts tied to the Pretoria Peace Agreement and Tigray Interim Administration were not reciprocated by the former TPLF leadership, accusing it of recruiting and rebuilding military capacity to regroup. Global Displacement Context: The UN reports 117.8 million people were forcibly displaced worldwide in 2025, with Sudan conflict cited among the drivers of refugee flows. Aid and Health Pressure: Three Geneva health groups plan closer work on malaria and neglected diseases as aid budgets fall and conflicts intensify, warning solidarity is under strain.

Sudan Conflict Update: A drone strike in El Obeid, North Kordofan, killed at least 16 people on June 11, with residents and rights groups accusing the RSF; another report says a funeral gathering was hit, adding to mounting scrutiny of alleged UAE-RSF links. Sudan Civilian Harm: The Associated Press also reports at least 15 killed in central Sudan drone attacks, underscoring how unmanned aircraft are increasingly used in the war that has displaced millions and pushed large areas toward famine. Sudan Security/Crime: In Nigeria, the EFCC arrested an airport security officer and two others over alleged smuggling of gold and foreign currencies worth over N4.4 billion through Kano airport, with gold concealed on the body. Sudan Politics/Accountability: In Nepal, Home Minister Sudan Gurung’s reappointment sparked questions in parliament about whether an investigation cleared him and whether reports were made public—an issue still “far from closed.” Global Context: UNHCR says forced displacement fell in 2025 for the first time in a decade, but returns often happen under pressure, with Sudan among the top destinations.

Belfast Unrest After Sudan-Linked Attack: Northern Ireland’s minister Hilary Benn called the renewed mob violence “racist thuggery” after a Sudanese man, Hadi Alodid, was charged over the knife attack that triggered days of anti-immigrant riots; police used water cannon and plastic bullets, 12 officers were injured, and the victim Stephen Ogilvie’s condition was reported improving as his family urged an end to misinformation and intimidation. Asylum and Identity Questions: Reports say Alodid was granted asylum via a fast-track Home Office scheme tied to Sudan’s “security and humanitarian situation,” and friends claim he briefly served as a policeman in Khartoum—fueling fresh political blame over asylum handling. Targeted Communities: Reuters described fear among Sudanese and other minority residents after masked groups attacked homes and businesses, while authorities warned online address lists and hate content helped stoke the violence. Sudan War Update: In Sudan, rights groups said a drone strike hit a funeral procession in el-Obeid, killing at least four and injuring others, with the RSF blamed. Regional Spillovers: Separately, the World Food Programme warned the Iran war is worsening food insecurity across regions, including Sudan-linked displacement pressures.

Belfast Unrest After Knife Attack: A 30-year-old Sudanese man, Hadi Alodid, was charged with attempted murder after the stabbing of Stephen Ogilvie, who lost his left eye; the attack sparked two nights of anti-immigrant violence in Northern Ireland, with masked mobs torching homes and vehicles and clashing with police. Police Crackdown: On the second night, Hilary Benn said the disorder was “racist thuggery,” as water cannon and armored vehicles were used; Reuters reported 12 police officers injured and 16 arrests, with unrest concentrated around Glengormley and crowds trying to reach an asylum-linked hotel. Victim’s Family Plea: Ogilvie’s family urged calm, saying the tragedy must not be used to “fuel hostility,” while politicians condemned “masked thugs” and urged peaceful protest. Online Incitement Debate: Authorities and officials pointed to online coordination and “hit list” style posts, while public figures including Elon Musk and Tommy Robinson faced renewed scrutiny over their role in amplifying demonstrations. Global Displacement Update: UNHCR reported forcibly displaced people fell to 117.8 million in 2025, the first drop in a decade, with many returns concentrated in Sudan, Afghanistan and Syria but often under unsafe conditions.

Belfast Unrest After Knife Attack: A 30-year-old Sudanese man, Hadi Alodid, appeared in Belfast court charged with attempted murder after a stabbing left Stephen Ogilvie with severe injuries, including loss of his left eye. Anti-Immigrant Violence: The case sparked a night of masked arson and attacks on homes and vehicles across Northern Ireland, with families forced to flee and police deploying water cannons as a second night of unrest began. Calls for Calm: Ogilvie’s family and UK and Northern Ireland leaders urged restraint, saying the tragedy must not be used to “fuel hostility,” while authorities warned against misinformation spreading online. Border and Politics: Officials in the UK and Ireland faced renewed scrutiny over how the suspect reached Northern Ireland via Dublin, as lawmakers debated the Common Travel Area and immigration enforcement. Online Safety Pressure: UK regulator Ofcom reminded platforms of duties under the Online Safety Act after hate and violence-linked content circulated during the riots.

Belfast Knife Attack Fallout: A Sudanese man, 30-year-old Hadi Alodid, appeared in Belfast court charged with attempted murder, possession of a knife and threats to kill after a Monday stabbing that left victim Stephen Ogilvie with severe injuries including loss of his left eye; the attack sparked a night of anti-immigration riots where masked mobs torched homes, cars and a bus, blocked roads, and forced residents to flee. Court & Police Updates: Alodid was remanded in custody for four weeks after refusing legal representation; police say he entered Northern Ireland in 2023, applied for asylum and was granted leave to remain until 2028, with investigators urging calm as more disorder is deterred. Community & Political Response: Northern Ireland and UK leaders condemned the violence as racist and unacceptable, while Christian leaders urged restraint and PSNI appealed for the criminal justice process to run its course. Online Incitement Row: Labour figures and others accused social media platforms and prominent accounts of amplifying unrest, including Elon Musk. Regional Diplomacy: Egypt’s foreign minister discussed Sudan and regional security with Saudi and UAE counterparts, stressing unity and a political solution.

Belfast Violence After Stabbing: Police in Northern Ireland charged a 30-year-old Sudanese man with attempted murder after a knife attack in north Belfast left a man in his 40s with serious injuries to his eyes, face, neck and back; PSNI said there’s no indication it was terrorism-related and urged calm as graphic footage online fueled anger. Anti-Immigration Protests Turn Violent: Hundreds of protesters gathered, with masked youths setting a Glider bus on fire in east Belfast and damaging homes and vehicles; Translink suspended services and PSNI reported “sporadic pockets of disorder” across the province. Political Pressure and Calls for Restraint: UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer condemned the attack as “sickening,” while police warned people not to be “duped” by social media and not to target communities. Sudan Accountability in Kenya: In a separate Sudan-linked development, Legal Action Worldwide filed a war-crimes complaint in Kenya against senior RSF commanders, alleging torture, rape, sexual slavery and killings around Khartoum since April 2023. Regional Diplomacy: Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE discussed Gaza, Iran-U.S. talks and Sudan’s stability, stressing unity and a political settlement.

Sudan Peace Talks: The US and a coalition of Western, African and UN partners backed a Sudanese civilian-led political dialogue, saying there can be no military solution and calling for a humanitarian truce leading to a permanent ceasefire after consultations in Addis Ababa (June 3-5). Regional Diplomacy: The UAE welcomed the Addis Ababa joint statement, stressing an inclusive civilian transition, preparatory dialogue structures, and protection of civilians while pushing for aid access. Humanitarian Aid: The US State Department awarded $240 million to Catholic Relief Services for rapid disaster and humanitarian response, naming Sudan among priority countries. Conflict Impact: A Norwegian study reported 2025 saw the highest number of state-linked conflicts since WWII and a sharp rise in civilian deaths, pointing to Sudan’s El-Fasher violence in Darfur as a major driver. Security on the Ground: A UN-linked account says drone strikes are becoming a leading cause of civilian deaths in Sudan, with heavy tolls reported in Kordofan and Darfur. EU-Jordan Context: EU human rights chief Kaja Ollongren praised Jordan as a stable EU partner, underscoring the wider regional diplomatic push around refugee and crisis management.

Sudan Peace Talks: Western powers and regional blocs backed a civilian-led roadmap, saying there can be no military solution and calling for a humanitarian truce leading to a permanent ceasefire, after consultations in Addis Ababa (June 3–5) under the AU/IGAD/Arab League/EU/UN “quintet.” UAE Diplomacy: The UAE welcomed the same Sudan joint statement, reaffirming support for a comprehensive, civilian-led political process, protection of civilians, and unhindered delivery of aid, while highlighting the quintet’s consultations and plans for an inclusive Sudanese-Sudanese dialogue. Humanitarian Security: The US-led coalition endorsed the launch of a Sudanese civilian dialogue process aimed at forming an independent transitional authority, warning that the deteriorating humanitarian situation and attacks on civilians must be addressed through politics, not force. Traditional Mining Crackdown: Sudan announced new measures to regulate traditional mining, curb gold and drug smuggling, and reduce harm from chemicals used in extraction, including removing mills and basins from residential and military areas. Regional Context: FAO urged keeping trade open for agricultural inputs and using fertilizer efficiently amid global food production risks tied to wider regional disruptions.

Sudan Peace Talks: A new civilian-led peace roadmap was unveiled in Nairobi, proposing a three-track plan of humanitarian steps, a renewable internationally monitored ceasefire, and a political transition tied to state reform, while seeking to exclude key Islamist leaders from politics and security-sector overhaul. Traditional Mining Crackdown: Sudan announced measures to regulate traditional mining, remove mills and basins from residential and military areas, and curb gold and drug smuggling after reports of chemical poisoning linked to unregulated extraction. War’s Civilian Toll: Drone attacks in North Kordofan’s Hamrat El Sheikh locality killed at least 15 civilians and injured dozens, including strikes on Abu Zaima market and nearby villages. UN Under Pressure: UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said the world body struggles to keep its message heard as international law is trampled during crises, including Sudan. Regional Diplomacy: Egypt and the EU continued crisis-management cooperation, with Sudan peace and regional displacement among the issues discussed.

Sudan War & Civilians: Drone attacks in North Kordofan killed at least 15 civilians and injured dozens, hitting Abu Zaima market and nearby villages, with another strike reported on a fuel station in El Obeid. Army Defections: Sudan’s army says it has welcomed RSF defectors, including commanders pledged to the army, a move that could reshape internal loyalties. Politics & Governance: Sudan Gurung’s probe in Nepal is extended and he has asked supporters not to visit the ministry for two months if reappointed, while separate reports say Sudanese groups are pushing for a transition framework tied to established international processes. Humanitarian Funding: The U.S. announced $240m for Catholic Relief Services, listing Sudan among countries facing major humanitarian needs. Health & Disease: Ebola fears in India eased as a second suspected case tested negative, while broader coverage warns against sensationalizing outbreaks.

Sudan Peace Talks: Sudanese political and civil forces from rival camps agreed on a shared vision to end the war and move toward democratic civilian rule, handing a draft consensus to the international “quintet” mechanism after days of talks. Army Defections: Sudan’s army welcomed RSF defectors, with commanders pledging to lay down arms—an apparent boost for the army, but one that could deepen divisions inside its ranks. Humanitarian Funding: The U.S. approved more than $240m for Catholic Relief Services, with Sudan listed among the crisis-hit countries to receive multi-sector aid as hunger pressures mount. Eid Aid in Sudan: Qatar Red Crescent Society’s Eid Al-Adha “Make Their Eid” campaign reached 247,344 beneficiaries across 14 countries including Sudan. Security and Rights: UN staff in Libya faced attacks after protests over migration claims; the UN denied any resettlement program in Libya.